I'll Have Another - The Overlay of the Century

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - How many times does a gambler like a horse and wish the odds could have been much higher than they were? It does not happen that often but when the unforeseen takes place, it's best to take the money and ask questions later.

I'll Have Another, 12-1 on the morning line in this past Saturday's Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, was surprisingly 43-1 come post time against seven other runners, four of which were stakes winners. Furthermore, the three favorites - Liaison, Rousing Sermon, and Sky Kingdom - were all represented on many Top 10 Kentucky Derby lists.

The longshot came into the race off a long layoff - his last appearance was all the way back in September at Saratoga in the Hopeful Stakes, a race he was beaten by 19-lengths. However, it is important to note the Hopeful was run in the slop, a surface I'll Have Another apparently did not appreciate. He also had to travel cross-country from his home base of California and that might have played a factor in the poor performance as well.

Prior to that race, I'll Have Another finished second to Creative Cause (one of the this year's leading three-year-olds) in the Grade II Best Pal Stakes a little over a month after breaking his maiden in his debut at Hollywood Park.

As noted in last week's column, trainer Doug O'Neill had worked his chestnut colt longer distances in January to prepare him for the two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race. In fact, I'll Have Another put forth a bullet six-furlong workout on Jan. 11 in 1:12 2/5, followed by a pair of seven-furlong works leading into the Robert B. Lewis.

It also must be stated that I'll Have Another is bred to race over a distance of ground. His sire, Flower Alley, won the 2005 Travers Stakes. Flower Alley is by Distorted Humor, who has sent out both Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer to win Triple Crown races.

I'll Have Another's dam side is even more impressive with multiple "stayers" going back over the last four generations, including the likes of Arch, Kris S, Pleasant Tap, Roberto, and Pleasant Colony.

Given all of his credentials, there was no reason he should have gone off at 43-1. Sometimes bettors get lucky and those are the instances on which to capitalize.

As for the race itself, it was the second fastest Robert B. Lewis as I'll Have Another finished the 1 1/16-mile in a brisk 1:40 4/5. After running his third quarter in 23 2/5 seconds, the $35,000 purchase came home in 30 2/5. The track was playing fast all day as Ultimate Eagle won the 1 1/8-mile Strub Stakes in 1:47, but breaking 1:41 for 1 1/16-miles is still extremely notable.

I'll Have Another prevailed easily by 2 3/4-lengths with Empire Way rallying on the rail for second. The favored Liaison, who didn't fire, dumped rider Rafael Bejarano through the stretch after being interfered with by Groovin' Solo. Moreover, Sky Kingdom barely lifted a hoof with his sixth-place finish.

I'll Have Another will stick to morning workouts until returning to the races in the Santa Anita Derby on Apr. 7.

ALPHA REPEATS COUNT FLEET WIN IN THE WITHERS

Alpha dominated an outclassed group in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday taking the Grade II race by 3 1/4-lengths over 44-1 shot Speightcity.

The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt ran the 1 1/16-miles in 1:44 1/5 as the 3-10 favorite. The most important part of Alpha's races are usually the few seconds before the race and the initial moment he comes out of the starting gate as he's had much more trouble in those spots compared to the running of the race itself.

In the Withers, Alpha entered the gate without a hitch and broke well from the outside post. The son of Bernardini went a tad wide around the first turn but settled in nicely a few lengths off the early pace set by How Do I Win. He then pulled into the lead at the head of the stretch and drew clear with three taps of the whip from jockey Ramon Dominguez.

Alpha will more than likely rest in the month of March while preparing for the Wood Memorial the same day as the Santa Anita Derby. The public will get a good read on how much he has improved in that race as his competition will be much stiffer in the $1 million race.

A MAIDEN NO MORE

Battle Hardened came into the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs without a victory in three career starts. Now the son of Giant's Causeway has $120,000 of graded earnings after winning the Grade III race by 1 1/4-lengths over Prospective.

The Tampa Bay Derby looks like the logical next step for Battle Hardened and quite possibly Prospective, Reveron, and Ravelo's Boy as those three were noses apart for second, third, and fourth.

Don't expect any one of those four to be Kentucky Derby contenders as the race was run in a slow 1:44 2/5 seconds with the winner needing almost 32 seconds to finish his final five-sixteenths. Older horses ran the 1 1/16-miles in 1:43 earlier on the card.

KEY ALLOWANCE RACE ON THURSDAY

A pair of impressive maiden winners will meet at Santa Anita on Thursday when Bob Baffert's Fed Biz hooks up with Mike Puype's Consulado. Both were beaten in their debuts but came back strong in their next start.

Fed Biz won at Santa Anita on Dec. 30 stopping the clock in an impressive 1:35 2/5 for the one-mile event while Consulado won by 7 1/4-lengths going 6 1/2- Furlongs in 1:15 flat. Fed Biz is the more regally bred of the two and has the advantage in this two-turn race.

FUTURE WAGER - POOL ONE

The first Future Wager comes this weekend with 24 wagering interests (23 individual horses and the "Field," which includes every other horse).

Look for all 12 of my "Dirty Dozen" to be single entrants along with these 11, listed in alphabetical order: Battle Hardened, Consortium, Dullahan, Empire Way, Ever So Lucky, Liaison, Midnight Transfer, Motor City, Rousing Sermon, Russian Greek, and Take Charge Indy. Of these 11, the ones I would consider wagering on are Empire Way and Russian Greek as both are bred to run all day.

The Key question of the week is how will the results of the Robert B. Lewis affect the odds in the Future Wager?

First off, Liaison will certainly be much higher than he would have if he had won. Second, I'll Have Another will now not be lumped in with the "Field." In addition, a lot of bettors might think his victory was a fluke so his odds could still be high, just not as humongous as they were last Saturday. Sky Kingdom will most likely be one of the "Field" horses so those who want to toss the race will not be helped out by the results.

I expect Union Rags to be favored with Algorithms a close second-choice. People will still bet Hansen so look for between 15 and 20-1 on the two-year- old champ. Out of Bounds and El Padrino will also get a lot of action, as will Creative Cause and Alpha.

For those wagering in Pool 1, I would suggest putting a few dollars on I'll Have Another and Gemologist, along with the aforementioned Empire Way and Russian Greek, if those two are single entrants.

THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"

1) Union Rags - Looks to continue the trend of two three-year-old starts before the Derby; 2) Algorithms - His first two-turn race will answer more questions; 3) I'll Have Another - Won't be 43-1 again; 4) Gemologist - Had his first work of the year on Sunday - 3 in 39 4/5; 5) Discreet Dancer - Needs to show he can handle two turns; 6) Alpha - Has the right pedigree for the first Saturday in May; 7) Out of Bounds - Awaits the San Felipe in early March; 8) Creative Cause - A series of six-furlong works will give him more foundation for future two-turn races; 9) El Padrino - Pletcher's fourth horse in the top nine moves up on off track; 10) Hansen - Must rebound in his next start or he is off the list; 11) Sabercat - Hasn't worked since early December; 12) Fed Biz - A big win on Thursday will shoot him further up the ladder

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Online Sportsbook Football Betting

LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

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